Facts Point to Updates
Every time there is an unofficial update, there are generally four symptoms that seemingly indicate an update is happening:
- SERP weather reports indicate ranking changes
- eCommerce retailers testify to ranking changes
- Blackhat affiliate publishers report lost rankings
- SEO professionals publish reports of possible quality issues affected by the rankings
Those are four signs that an update to Google’s algorithm has happened. Yet in almost every one of those so-called “Phantom” events, Google has denied that anything important has updated with the algorithm. Given that so many publishers and SEOs report that an update has happened, it’s almost certain that Google is denying an update in order to protect their algorithm. It’s the logical conclusion.
Google Protecting their Algorithm is the Logical Conclusion
Centuries ago it was understood that the sun revolved around the earth. You could see it with your own eyes. The idea that sun revolved around the earth was a logical conclusion supported by the evidence. The problem, of course, was that, unknown to medieval citizens, there was a considerable amount of evidence missing. So the 100% logical conclusion that the sun revolved around the sun was wrong.
As the true history of our understanding about the suns orbit illustrates, logical conclusions can be wrong. It’s also a scientific fact that logical conclusions can be wrong.
Understanding that logical conclusions are unreliable will help further the understanding that perhaps Google is telling the truth and not trying to protect their algorithm.
1. SEO Weather Reports are Unreliable
It is a proven fact that SEO weather reports are unreliable. Every single SEO Weather Report missed the rollout of Google’s Panda Algorithm. The introduction of the Panda algorithm was one of Google’s most disruptive algorithm updates ever. Yet SEO weather reports at the time missed it.
SERoundtable published an article featuring comments from both John Mueller and Gary Illyes stating that SEO weather reports are inaccurate and that SEO weather tools are inadvertently amplifying small effects because of the methodology used.
2. eCommerce Retailers Experience Ranking Changes
It is a fact that that on every day of every month there are sites losing rankings. There is volatility in the SERPs every single day, 365 days of the years. WebmasterWorld.com has for the past several years hosted a monthly Google Update discussion where web publishers discuss their ranking changes. Not a day goes by, year after year, without a web publisher sharing that their rankings have changed. You can verify this on Google’s own product forum as well.
3. “Black Hat” Affiliate Sites Lost Rankings
The business model of so-called “black hat” affiliate websites is to rank sites with methods that violate Google’s guidelines and keep creating new sites as the older sites lose rankings. This is called the churn and burn business model. It’s similar to how fish reproduce in the wild, by producing millions of eggs to compensate for the loss of most of them to predation.
It’s not notable if a so-called “black hat” affiliate site loses ranking. What’s notable is if a single day goes by and a “black hat” site does not bite the dust. The chatter of sites losing rankings does not cease. Chatter on black hat forums about ranking losses is a daily occurrence, not the exception. So it cannot be cited as evidence of a Google update. You can tell because there is almost always disagreement as to whether it was links or content that Google was targeting.
4. Anecdotal SEO Agency Reports
When a so-called update happens, SEO professionals publish reports based on the issues reported by clients coming to them for help. This is an unreliable source of data because it’s a self-selecting sample.
Remember, Google updates their algorithm every single day. There are tests. There are refinements to existing algorithms. Most major algorithm updates only affect low single digit percentages close to one percent or less.
Thus, it’s easy to assume that most of the daily refinements to Google’s algorithm likely affect a limited amount of queries close to a fraction of one percent and at worst, in the low single digits percentage-wise.
Is Google Protecting their Algorithm?
Google has traditionally been open about algorithm updates. Every major infrastructure and algorithm change has been announced after it was implemented. Tellingly, except for update Penguin and Update Florida, most Google updates passed unnoticed until they were announced.
Evidence for Phantom Updates
It’s obvious that many of these updates are, as Googlers have insisted, false reports. Google updates and refines their algorithm every single day. Web publishers experience ranking changes every single day. SEO Weather reports are unreliable. The evidence that the so-called Phantom Updates were not actual updates is compelling.